Decision making may take place by default, this is, without consciously recognizing that an opportunity for decision making exists. This fact leads us to a first element in a definition of decision-making. To have a decision making situation, there must be at least two alternatives available. If only one course of action is available, there can be no decision making, for there is nothing to decide. We would have no alternative but to proceed with single available course of action. (One might argue that it is a rather unusual situation when there are no alternative courses o action. More frequently, alternatives simply are not recognized.)
At this point we might console that the decision-making process consist of choosing from among alternative courses of action. But this is an inadequate definition. Consider the following:
At a horse race,a bettor was uncertain which of the five horses to bet on in the next race. He closed his eyes and pointed his finger at the list of horses printed in the racing program. Upon opening his eyes, he saw that he as pointing to horse number four. He hurried off to place his bet on that horse.
Does the racehorse selection represent the process of decision making? Yes, it clearly was a process of choosing among alternatives (assuming the bettor had already ruled out the “do-nothing” alternative of placing no bet). But the particular method of deciding seems inadequate and irrational. We want to deal with rational decision making.
Rational Decision Making
Rational decision making is a complex process that contains a number of essential elements; although somewhat arbitrary, we define the rational decision-making process in terms of eight steps:
1. Recognition of a problem;
2. Definition of the goal or objective;
3. Assembly of relevant data;
4. Identification of feasible alternatives;
5. Selection of the criterion for judging which is the best alternative;
6. Construction of the interrelationships between the objective, alternatives, data, and the criterion;
7. Prediction of the outcomes or each alternative; and,
8. Choice of the best alternative to achieve the objective.
The following sections will describe these elements in greater detail.
Decision-Process System
We know that decision making cannot begin until the existence of a problem is recognized. But from that point on, there is no fixed path to choosing the best alterntive. Problems seldom can be solved by the sequential approach of Figure 2-1. This is because it is usually difficult, or impossible, to complete one element in the process without considering the effect on other elements in decision making. The gathering of relevant data may suggest feasible alternatives. But it could just as easily be that in identifying feasible alternatives, one will need additional data not yet assembled. This, decision making cannot be seen as an eight-step process that proceeds sequentially from Step 1 to Step 8.
A somewhat better diagram of the decision process is illustrated in Fig. 2-2. This diagram groups the elements in a more flexible, and therefore more realistic, manner. There is no attempt to dictate which comes first-the objective or goal, the feasible alternatives, or the relevant data. In fact,the implication is that once one has recognized the problem, several elements of the decision-making process may be considered concurrently. We mentioned earlier that the eight elements of Figures 2-1 and 2-2 are somewhat arbitrary and artificial, so it is not too surprising that we have difficulty drawing a diagram that properly represents the interrelationship between the elements.
Even Fig. 2-2 seems to siggest that once the relevant data, for example, are determined, that element of the decision process has been concluded. We objected to that concept in the linier relationship in Fig. 2-1,and so we are equally critical of Fig. 2-2 in this respect. The missing aspect of both Figures 2-1 and 2-2 is feedback. No matter where one is in the decision-making process, there will frequently be a need to go back and redo or extend the work on some other element in the process. In other words, one may pass through a particular element several times while in the decision process system. This feedback, where subsequent elements influence previously determined elements, is difficult to show in a diagram, for there would likely be prospective paths from any element to most other elements. To redraw Fig. 2-2 with these additional pathways would useful schematic diagram of thedecision process.
SUMMARY
For rational decision making to take place,there must be an effort to select,by a logical method of analysis,the best alternative from among the feasible alternatives. While difficult to isolate into discrete items,the analysis can be thought of as including eight elements.
1. Recognition of a problem: the realization that a problem exists is the first step in problem solving.
2. Definition of the goal or objective to be accomplished: what is the task?
3. Assembly of relevant data: What are the facts? Do we need to gather additional data? Is the additional information worth at least what it costs us to obtain it?
4. identification of feasible alternatives: what are the practical alternative ways of accomplishing our objective or task?
5. Selection of the criterion for judging the best alternative: what is the single criterion most important to the solution of the problem? There are many possible criteria from which to choose. They may be political, economic, ecological, humanitarian, or whatever. A single criterion may be selected, or it may be a composite of several different criteria.
6. Construction of the various interrelationships: this phase is frequently called mathematical modeling .
7. Prediction of outcomes for each alternative.
8. choice of the best alternative to achieve the odjective.
The decision process system is not a matter of proceeding from the first element to the last one, for there is no mandatory sequence that must be followed. In fact, as one proceeds it is often necessary to go back and re-examine maker is more likely to be the person who performs the analysis than the person who selects the resulting alternative to be adopted.
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